MLB: Looking At Stats
by Brian Hansen
Baseball, probably more than any other sport, has a ton of statistical information to support handicappers in their daily work. Whereas in basketball and football, specific scheduling situations, or revenge, or emotional edges, all combine to play a key role; baseball is much different. Statistics get most of the attention in baseball and, the fact is, that is precisely how it should be.
However, the real key is to understand the correct application of those statistics as well as to dig a little deeper than the competition so you can find the even stronger value on the board in your daily handicapping! The key numbers in handicapping baseball most often tie back to simple numbers like a batters batting average and a pitchers earned run average. However, it goes so much deeper than that. Some pitchers are awful against left-handed batters and some hurlers struggle against right-handed sticks. Some pitchers struggle at home while others excel at home but can't pitch well at all when they take to the road.
A good point of advice in this area is to start your handicapping from a very generalized approach. When you're analyzing a board full of 15 games in a "normal" baseball day you may find five or six situations that interest you. The key then is to "drill down" a little deeper into those games by checking on some of those statistics noted above. As an example, if you've got a weak right-hander (who struggles to get left-handed batters out) facing a line-up like the Yankees you've definitely got something to work with. That's because the Yanks are loaded with left-handed bats and could prove very dangerous in a match-up like this. Of course other factors come into play too like the pitcher's current form, the Yankees current form at the plate, etc. However, the point is that to always be aware of the lefty/righty angle is very important. There are some solid right-handed pitchers who simply are miserable against left-handed bats. There are also some southpaw hurlers who are murder on left-handed sticks but struggle mightily against right-handed batters.
Another key area that should never escape you in analyzing MLB stats is to understand the strength of opposition. For example, so many people look at the last three starts in analyzing how well a starting pitcher has been doing. However, if those three starts came against weak teams or if those starts came at home, there could be a big issue for this supposed "hot" pitcher if he's now taking to the road and facing a very strong lineup. Also, some pitchers have a knack for struggling or being successful in certain ball parks. There usually is substance to this and this is another angle that also should be looked at in evaluating how a starting pitcher may perform in a certain situation. In summary, there is simply an inordinate amount of information available in baseball handicapping and, as noted above, the key is to dig a little deeper plus be very mindful of current form of a team/batter/pitcher when you're completing your MLB handicapping. This will help immensely in staying the course of picking winners and, of course, that's what this business is all about!
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