Big Brown was being geared down as he crossed the finish line 5 ¼ lengths ahead of Macho Again in the Preakness. Before jockey Kent Desormeaux could get him back to the Winner’s Circle the “T.V. experts” were already proclaiming him our first Triple Crown winner in 30 years! How quickly they had forgotten that just 3 years ago Smarty Jones won the Preakness by a record breaking 11 ½ lengths and failed to win the Triple Crown after losing to 36 to 1 Birdstone.

When Daily Racing Form reporters asked Big Brown’s trainer, Richard Dutrow, if he was worried about beating second choice Casino Drive in the Belmont, he scoffed “I watched Casino Drive run, I've watched our horse run. I don't see that that horse can beat him.”

By the time Smarty Jones entered the starting gate for the Belmont, his career record was a perfect 8-for-8 with earnings over $7 million. Anyone that had watched Smarty Jones and Birdstone both run would have also concluded that there was no way that Smarty Jones wouldn’t win the 2004 Triple Crown. Trained by Nick Zito, Birdstone entered the Belmont winning 3 of his 6 lifetime starts and had skipped the Preakness after losing by 15 lengths in the Kentucky Derby to Mr. Jones.

Maybe Smarty Jones didn’t like the Belmont surface, maybe he couldn’t go 1 ½ miles, or maybe it was the toll of winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness just two weeks apart. Whatever the reason, Smarty Jones looked unbeatable, but lost.

Casino Drive is sired by Mineshaft, out of the mare Better than Honour. His mother’s side makes him a half brother to our last two Belmont winners, Jazil in 2006 and the filly, Rags to Riches, in 2007. He was bred in Kentucky, but is Japanese owned and broke his maiden in Japan. After winning his debut, he was shipped to the U.S. and missed 60 days of training due to our animal quarantine laws. After returning to training, he easily made the leap to stakes company while winning the Peter Pan Stakes (Grade II) by 5 ¾ lengths over the Belmont. While he’s lightly raced, he’s won over the Belmont surface and his breeding leaves no doubt that he can get the 1 ½ miles.

Besides Big Brown (2-5) and Casino Drive (7-2), the likely first two choices in the betting, the Belmont has a field of 10 starters. Third place Kentucky Derby finisher, Dennis of Cork (12-1) and fourth place runner Tale of Ekati (20-1) will both take a second shot at Big Brown.

Birdstone trainer, Nick Zito, will try to play spoiler once again sending out Anak Nakal (30-1). Interestingly, like Birdstone, Anak Nakal also finished 15 lengths behind the horse he’s trying to turn the tables on in the Derby.

After finishing second and third in the Preakness, both Macho Again (20-1) and Icabad Crane (20-1) will return in the Belmont. The field is rounded out with Guadalcanal (50-1), Da’ Tara (30-1) and Ready’s Echo (30-1).

It’s been 30 years since Affirmed swept the Triple Crown in 1978 and since 1997 there have been six 3-year-olds have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, only to fail as favorites in the Belmont Stakes. Just like Big Brown, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all looked like they’d easily end our Triple Crown drought. Don’t put the crown on Big Brown until he crosses the finish line in front.

The Belmont Stakes will be run as the 11th race on Saturday’s thirteen race card, with an approximate post of 6:25 pm EST.

Field for the Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) Purse $1,000,000

1. Big Brown Desormeaux 2-5

2. Guadalcanal Castellano 50-1

3. Macho Again Gomez 20-1

4. Dennis of Cork Albarado 12-1

5. Casino Drive Prado 7-2

6. Da’Tara Garcia 30-1

7. Tale of Ekati Coa 20-1

8. Anak Nakal LeParoux 30-1

9. Ready’s Echo Velazquez 30-1

10. Icabad Crane Rose 20-1

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