NFL Betting: 2011 NFL MVP Prop Play
9/6/2011
by MTi Sports

Here is a prop play that is loaded with line value: Philip Rivers to win the MVP. Right now you can get at least +1200 for your wager. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won two MVP's each in the last four years. Rivers has a real shot this season. I believe that his competition is Aaron Rogers and Drew Brees.

San Diego's 9-7 record last season was a fluke that was caused by atrocious special teams play. With the receiving core that Rivers has, he should put up some HUGE numbers in the weak AFC West. Last season, the Chargers were swept by the Raiders. This season, they will be primed for revenge and Asomugha is not in the Raiders' backfield anymore. The Denver Bronocs have a terrible defense and the Chiefs are in for a butt-kicking because the Chiefs had the nerve to win their division last season.

The Chargers lost three games last season when they were more than a seven-point favorite. Why? Because they came out of the locker room flat and overconfident and they featured their rushing and short passing game. They lost 20-17 to the Rams laying 8, 28-13 laying 13 to the Raiders and 34-20 to the Bengals laying 7.5. In the first quarter of these three games the Chargers were outscored 31-0. That's right, they were outscored 31-0 in the first quarter despite the fact that they were laying more than a TD.

Hopefully, Norv Turner will learn that you have to let this team play THEIR game even against weak opponents. They have to CRUSH weak opposition EARLY in the game. They have to come out firing. When you come out passively, it just gives the underdog hope. Turner has to loosen the reins on this team and let them fly. Turner should bring back the ghost of Don Coryell and let Rivers throw the ball on virtually every down.

The Chargers will be an underdog only twice this season - in New England in week 2 and in NY vs. the Jets in 7. The Patriots will be off a Monday Nighter with the Dolphins and the AFC East is 0-17 STRAIGHT UP since 1994 in September after playing the Dolphins. These teams are 0-17 ATS as well and they were a favorite in eight of the seventeen games.

When they visit the Jets in week 7 New York will also be off a Monday Night game with the Dolphins, and Rivers and the Chargers will have an extra week to prepare for the Jets as week six is San Diego's bye.

Another reason we lean toward Rivers is that the Chargers' defense is much better than that of the Colts or the Patriots. This means that the Chargers' offense will spend more time on the field and, hence, have more scoring opportunities.

Philip Rivers led the league in passing yards in 2010 despite the fact that he had 117 fewer attempts than Drew Brees and 138 fewer attempts than Peyton Manning. Finally, the Chargers have a QUALITY offensive line that has been playing together for some time now and in pass protection, and this is important.

This is a nice price for a Pro Bowl QB that has the consensus best set of receivers in the entire league.

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