MLB Wild Card at Stake

Just six games remain in the 2016 season, and the Toronto Blue Jays (86-70, –7.81 units) will play half of them against their closest rivals in the AL Wild Card race, the Baltimore Orioles (85-71, +12.65 units). Game 2 of their three-game series takes place Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET on Sportsnet, with Francisco Liriano pitching for Toronto against Chris Tillman.

The Jays are 9-7 against Baltimore this year, winning each of their last two series 2-1. But this is the first time that Liriano (4.48 FIP for Toronto) will have faced the Orioles since coming over from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline. He’s pitched three straight quality starts for Toronto to improve his team record to 4-3, good enough for 0.60 units in profit.

Tillman (4.22 FIP) has made considerably more money than that. The Orioles are 21-8 in his 29 starts for 13.18 betting units; only four MLB pitchers have generated more profit this year. The under is also 20-9 with Tillman on the mound, and 6-1 behind Liriano as a Blue Jay. However, current Baltimore batters have a combined .970 lifetime OPS against Liriano, mostly from his time with the Minnesota Twins.