ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +8 at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Hawks are playing above expectations this season in large part because of better defensive play. They aren’t great defensively by any means as they allow 1.163-points per possession, but that is lower than the 1.194PPP they gave up last season. They rank 22nd in DEFF this season after ranking 26th a year ago. Dyson Daniels for the Hawks is a big reason for the defensive uptick for the Hawks with 44 steals to start the season, most in the league. Atlanta has a negative point differential of minus -3.4ppg and have been ultra-competitive in recent weeks with 5 of their last seven games decided by 5-points or less. In their last five road games they have impressive wins over the Celtics and Kings along with a victory in New Orleans and two close losses at Portland and Detroit. One aspect I don’t like regarding this bet is the fact that the Warriors are coming off a loss. Golden State is 19-19 ATS their last 38 when coming off a loss with an average margin of +3.2ppg. The Hawks/Warriors have split the last four games and only one of those games was decided by more than tonight’s point spread. Grab the points with Atlanta.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – IPFW vs Penn State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Both teams in this match up love to play fast so we expect a lot of possessions in this game. Penn State ranks 12th nationally in adjusted tempo and IPFW ranks 88th. Can these offenses take advantage of a high possession game? Yes. Both are solid shooting teams with PSU hitting over 51% of their shots on the season and IPFW hitting 49%. They both are in the top 100 in 3 point FG% and they each average 10 made 3 pointers which puts them in the top 75. The Nittany Lions are putting up 1.14 points per possession which is in the top 50 and the Mastodons are averaging 1.09 PPP which is in the top 100. PSU has hit at least 86 points in every game this season and they’ve topped 100 twice. Their 86 points output over the weekend vs Va Tech was impressive as the Hokies have a solid defense and they were allowing just 62 PPG entering their game vs Penn State. PSU ranks 10th in the nation averaging 97 PPG. The IPFW offense has reached at least 90 points in 3 of their games this season and they are averaging 87 PPG on the season (48th nationally). When these teams get to the FT line they’ve been very successful as well with IPFW hitting 82% from the stripe and PSU 73%. Both defenses have solid numbers, however they have each played a number of poor offensive teams this season with only 1 of their 8 combined opponents ranking in the top 100 in offensive efficiency. At least 1 team has reached 90 points in 6 of their 8 combined games this season. The projected score of this one based on the spread in PSU 86, IPFW 72. Our numbers have both of those teams topping their projected total. Over is the call here.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points.