FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 2/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Over the Total in the game between Sam Houston and Western Kentucky. Sam Houston (10-16) snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 78-76 win against Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bearkats have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. Western Kentucky (14-11) has lost three games in a row after their 87-77 upset loss against Middle Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Hilltoppers played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing to a fellow Conference USA rival. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Take Over the Total. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 24 of 34 (71%) CBB run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING his 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month last night with the San Jose State-Utah State Over to fuel his 40 of 57 (70%) CBB featured plays run! Frank is on a 6 of 8 (75%) run to continue his 46 of 73 (63%) All-Sports featured plays run — and now he has tonight’s Sam Houston-Western Kentucky ATS winner on ESPNU at 9:00 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (14-11) has lost three games in a row after their 87-77 upset loss at home against Middle Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Sam Houston (10-16) snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 78-76 win against Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 38.6% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Hilltoppers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while they had won three games in a row before this recent losing streak, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +10.7 Points-Per-Game. The Hilltoppers are holding their guests to just 39.9% shooting which is resulting in 73.1 PPG. They rank 26th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.6% when playing at home — and they rank tenth in the nation by limiting their visitors to just a 26.5% clip from behind the arc when playing at home. This presents a major problem for the Bearkats since they only hit 46.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 302nd in the nation. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when continuing a home stand. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games this season against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Sam Houston ended their seven-game losing streak by making 53.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. But the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 79.1 PPG. They only make 42.9% of their shots on the road. Overall, they have a 3-13 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.2 PPG. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 150s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range including all seven of those games this season. Western Kentucky plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank third in the nation by averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession — and their games rank sixth in the country by averaging 72.9 possessions per game. The extra possessions help favorites cover when laying the points. And while the Hilltoppers limit their opponents to 41.4% shooting, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams with a 75-66 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on January 25th — and Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. 10* CBB Sam Houston-Western Kentucky ESPNU Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the fourth straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament having moved from April to February on the tour schedule two years ago. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7436 yards with five Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. The biggest change from last year is that the Par 4 eighth hole is 20 yards closer to the tee. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average. Additionally, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 yards or more yards away — so this course plays long. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 55 bunkers. Water is in play on 13 of the holes. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Platinum Paspalum grass that plays slow and measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. The field consists of 132 professionals with the top 65 scores along with ties making the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Alex Smalley (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Smalley (7105) versus Titch Moore (7106) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:41 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Alex Smalley who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Smalley is in good form on the tour right now — and he has the power to thrive on this course. He has made the cut in three of his first four events this season including an 11th place at The American Express and a tie for 21st place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Smalley ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks seventh on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which is encouraging for this tournament. The last three winners at this event finished the week in the top three in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. And while 42.3% of the approach shots come from 200 or more yards from the pin, Smalley’s current ranking of sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away from the hole is very encouraging. Smalley ranks 18th in Ball-Striking (Total Driving plus Greens-In-Regulation) after ranking fifth in that metric last season — and the last two winners of this tournament led the field for the week in Ball Striking. Smalley’s Achilles’ heel has been his putting — but he has demonstrated recent improvement with his blade. He has gained more than 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter at the Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Now he takes on the slower Paspalum greens where he has had nice success. He finished in sixth place on this course in 2022. Additionally, in his five trips to the El Cardonal and Corales Puntacana courses that feature Paspalum grass greens, he has finished in the top 25 four times. Smalley ranks top ten in the field in Shots-Gained: Total at both resort courses and courses that feature Paspalum greens.

Smalley is linked with Taylor Moore in Round One head-to-head props. Moore has made four straight cuts culminating with a tie for ninth place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Moore is a big hitter off the tee but he only ranks 55th in Driving Distance this season — and his approach game will be challenged this week. Moore ranks 116th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season — and he has struggled with his longer irons. After ranking 124th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away last year, he has taken a step back to 138th in that category this year. Moore can also struggle with his putting which puts him at a disadvantage at events like this which will likely require a very low score. He ranks 141st in Shots-Gained: Putting this year — and he is only 75th in Birdies or Better Percentage. I worry about golfers who struggle with their putting and who are relatively inexperienced on the Paspalum greens. Moore has played in this tournament only once when he missed the cut in 2022. Moore also ranks just 86th in Round One Scoring in 2025 — and Smalley ranks 25th on the PGA Tour this season in Round One Scoring. Take Smalley (7105) versus Moore (7106) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the fourth straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament having moved from April to February on the tour schedule two years ago. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7436 yards with five Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. The biggest change from last year is that the Par 4 eighth hole is 20 yards closer to the tee. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average. Additionally, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 yards or more yards away — so this course plays long. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 55 bunkers. Water is in play on 13 of the holes. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Platinum Paspalum grass that plays slow and measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. The field consists of 132 professionals with the top 65 scores along with ties making the weekend cut.

BEST BET: Kurt Kitayama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kitayama (7119) versus Niklas Norgaard (7210) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:25 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Mexico Open is on Kurt Kitayama who is listed at +2200 at DraftKings. Kitayama has yet in the top 35 so far this season — but participating in a less competitive field this week with the PGA Tour moving from the West Coast to Florida may be just what the doctor ordered. Kitayama is not playing bad — he has made the cut in three of his four PGA tournaments but his best result was a tie for 37th place at the Sony Open last month. Kitayama remains one of the better golfers on the PGA Tour. He had three top-eight finishes last year — and he finished in the top 41 at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the British Open. He is a great fit for this golf course because he is one of the best drivers on the tour. Last year, he ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. That is a key metric for success at this tournament since the last three winners of this event all finished in the top three for the week in that metric. And after ranking 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2024, he currently ranks 13th on the tour this year in that category. The last three winners of this tournament all finished in the top 11 for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also long with his irons — he ranks fifth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or farther yards away from the hole. Last year at this event, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 or more yards away. Kitayama is one of four pros in the field this week who ranks in the top 20 this season in both Driving Distance and Proximity from the hole from 200 or more yards away. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks in the top three in the field in the following categories: Shots-Gained: Total; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He thrives on long courses — and all six of his top four or better finishes since 2022 were on courses that consisted of 7400 or more yards including his first place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023. He played this event once in 2022 when he finished in second place — and he gained strokes against the field in all four major categories (Off-the-Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green, Putting).

Kitayama is linked with Niklas Norgaard in Round One head-to-head props. Norgaard is a journeyman on the European DP Tour. He does have nice power with his driver — but there too many red flags to consider him versus a PGA Tour veteran like Kitayama, especially for the opening Round One. This is Norgaard’s just fifth event on the PGA Tour. While he has plenty of experience in Europe, the North American climate and the course layouts on the PGA Tour take some experience to find comfort. Even more concerning for Norgaard is his lack of experience with the Platinum Plaspalum grass unique to Central America that plays slowe other putting surfaces. Norgaard played at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year but missed the cut. He struggled with the Poa annua greens where his putting numbers would place him 139th on the tour if he met the sample size requirements. His only PGA Tour event last year was the joint event at the PGA Genesis Scottish Open on a more familiar European course. His other two events on the PGA Tour were in 2021 and 2022 when he played at the joint event with the DP Tour at the Barbasol Championships in Kentucky on a course that has Bentgrass greens that could not be more different than Paspalum. Norgaard struggles with his short game including his chipping and sand wedge play. He only converted two of his four sand save attempts at the Farmers Insurance Open which trails the PGA Tour sand save average of 58.44%. Kitayama ranks 38th on the tour in Round One Scoring in 2025. Given that Norgaard is a debutante when it comes to his professional career at the Vedanta  Vallarta Course and is inexperienced with Paspalum, I am very comfortable fading Norgaard and his PGA Tour inexperience. Take Kitayama (7119) versus Norgaard (7120) in Round One head-to-head  props. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.